At Progressive Field, the Minnesota Twins faced yet another disheartening defeat, letting a three-run lead slip through their fingers to fall 4-3 to the Cleveland Guardians. The loss marks their 18th defeat in the past 27 games, a stretch that has significantly dimmed their postseason aspirations.
Griffin Jax's ill-timed two-run homer to Kyle Manzardo in the bottom of the eighth was a crushing blow, transforming the hopeful narrative into one of heartbreak. Jax candidly expressed the team's struggles: "It's pretty heartbreaking. We're kind of running on fumes as a staff."
The Twins currently hold onto the third AL wild-card spot, but their cushion has dwindled to a mere 1 1/2 games. Once boasting postseason odds of 95.4% according to FanGraphs as of September 5, those chances have now declined to 76.4%, reflecting a team in distress.
Manager Rocco Baldelli didn't mince words following the defeat. "If we're able to do what we need to do on the offensive end, we win, but we did not. We have to do better and we have to put nine innings together," he stressed. This sentiment echoes the team’s recent struggles at the plate, where they have failed to score more than three runs in 12 of their last 27 games.
Bats Falling Silent
During this dire stretch, the Twins' offensive numbers have been underwhelming. The team collectively is batting just .236 with a .296 on-base percentage and a .381 slugging percentage. Particularly troubling is their struggle when the bases are empty, batting a lowly .272, positioning them as the fourth worst in the league under those conditions.
Despite the bleak overall numbers, some individual performances provide a glimmer of hope. Byron Buxton and Carlos Correa have gone 5 for 15 with two doubles and a homer this month. Moreover, Max Kepler’s anticipated return could serve as a much-needed boost.
Pitching Woes
However, it's not just the offense that has been faltering. The pitching staff has seen its fair share of struggles as well. The bullpen, once boasting a respectable 3.84 ERA and a league-tenth ranking in win probability added (+3.41) over their first 123 games, has regressed sharply. In their recent 27-game period, they have an egregious 5.47 ERA and a league-worst minus-2.75 win probability added.
Starters have also labored, with the rotation recording a 6.07 ERA and averaging just 4.38 innings per start during the same period. Baldelli noted the team's ongoing identity crisis, stating, "We have to find ourselves as a team. We've been looking over the last month as far as who we are and how we're going to do this."
The Twins have endured a grueling schedule, playing 17 games in the last 18 days. In the past month, they have often found themselves with leads late into the game, only to see them evaporate. They held the lead in the seventh inning or later in five of their last 18 losses and were tied in the seventh inning or later on two other occasions.
Strategic Moves
In an attempt to fortify their staff, the Twins recently claimed left-hander Cole Irvin off waivers from the Baltimore Orioles. Irvin, who has posted a 4.86 ERA across 16 starts and nine relief appearances, is expected to add depth and versatility. As Derek Falvey explained, "We were thinking, how do we lengthen out what we already have? He could be your prototypical swingman who can pitch out of the bullpen. We don't have a left-handed starter in the mix right now either. He just adds another guy that we think can help."
While the Twins are in a precarious position, they maintain crucial tiebreakers over the Detroit Tigers and Seattle Mariners, both of whom are just two games behind them in the standings. The Tigers, in particular, have been on a tear, going 23-10 in their last 33 games.
The road ahead for the Twins is undeniably tough. As Pablo López succinctly put it, "Our margin of error keeps shrinking and shrinking. Now it's to the point where you've got to take it one day at a time, one pitch at a time, one at-bat at a time. Today will be a tough pill to swallow."
As the season heads towards its climax, the Twins will need to find ways to reverse their fortunes, focusing on both the offensive and defensive ends to cling onto their slim postseason hopes. The next few games will be crucial in determining whether they can rise to the occasion or succumb to the mounting pressure.