With the 2024 NBA season on the horizon, the buzz surrounding the Rookie of the Year (ROY) award is already mounting. Historically, this accolade often lands in the hands of the most prolific rookie scorer, with half of the last 10 winners topping the scoring charts among their peers. A deeper dive into recent trends shows that half of the past 16 recipients have been No. 1 overall picks, underscoring the expectation that the top pick will yield immediate dividends. However, notable outliers like Damian Lillard and Malcolm Brogdon remind us that true gems can be found outside the top five picks.
The Rarity of Big Men
Since 2003, the ROY honor has rarely gone to big men, with only Emeka Okafor, Blake Griffin, Karl-Anthony Towns, and recently drafted Victor Wembanyama breaking through the guard and forward dominance. This trend matters, particularly this year, as the 2024 draft class, touted to be among the least promising in NBA history, features top picks who don't man the guard position. This anomaly opens the door for intriguing possibilities and potential surprises in this year's ROY race.
Tough Competition for Guards
Among the guard prospects, Reed Sheppard stands as the most highly-touted pick, yet his journey won’t be easy. He joins a crowded backcourt in Houston, facing stiff competition to secure significant playing time. "They badly need his shooting," analysts note, pointing to his potential value-add if he can find his rhythm and stroke early in the season.
Stephon Castle and Ron Holland come with their share of challenges too. Castle, with a 26.7% clip from beyond the arc at UConn, and Holland, who managed only 23.9% on 3-pointers in the G-League, must prove their versatility and adaptability in a league where efficient shooting is paramount.
Big Men Prospects
Big men in the 2024 class, such as Zach Edey, are also under the spotlight. Edey appears poised for a starting role with the Grizzlies and aims to model his game after Jonas Valanciunas, hoping to carve out a niche within Memphis's system. Meanwhile, Donovan Clingan in Portland must navigate a rotation that includes Deandre Ayton and Robert Williams III, which could limit his early impact.
Similarly, Isaiah Collier finds himself blocked by established guards Collin Sexton and Jordan Clarkson, and Dalton Knecht has his work cut out for him with Austin Reaves and D'Angelo Russell commanding the Lakers' backcourt minutes.
Forwards and Dark Horses
Among the forwards, the competition is no less intense. The Timberwolves’ selection of Rob Dillingham signifies a future planning move, considering him as Mike Conley’s eventual successor. In Atlanta, Jalen Johnson and Dyson Daniels are vying with rookie Zaccharie Risacher for a forward spot alongside Trae Young, adding another layer to the developing rookie storylines.
As for Kyshawn George, his chances are dampened by his team context. "Playing for Washington kills Sarr’s candidacy because he has nobody to set him up," an insider commented, reflecting on the difficulties faced by rookies in less synergistic environments.
Previous Underdogs and Long-Shots
Reflecting on the previous season’s ROY voting, athletes like Brandin Podziemski and Jaime Jaquez Jr. garnered votes but didn't pose serious threats to the top contenders. Their experiences highlight the thin line between promising performances and standout seasons in the fiercely competitive NBA.
This year’s rookie landscape promises plenty of narrative intrigue. While the crop may not compare favorably to more illustrious classes of the past, the blend of potential stars in unconventional molds and the uphill battles faced by guards in crowded rotations set the stage for a compelling quest for the Rookie of the Year award. Those rookies who can overcome their initial hurdles and seize their moments will be the ones remembered when the season wraps up and the accolades are handed out.